An Insight by Market Veteran Benjamin Cowen indicates a possible Ethereum downturn in Q4 2024, echoing the trends witnessed in 2016 and 2019.
Recently, Cowen pointed out Ethereum’s ETH/USD monthly candle patterns that echo past behaviors, forecasting a potential third occurrence of a breakdown against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) under circumstances reminiscent of 2016 and 2019.
The critical question lingers: Will ETH/USD descend further, adhering to historical precedents?
ETH/BTC Historical Patterns
Cowen’s analysis reveals that in Q4 2016, Ethereum faced its inaugural ETH/BTC breakdown, soon followed by a decline in ETH/USD. During this period, Ethereum also breached a green regression curve, which had served as significant support. After experiencing a Q4 downturn and falling below this curve, Ethereum yet again regained upward trajectory in the subsequent months.
#ETH / #USD monthly candles still tracking 2016 perfectly.
In 2019 (also a year #ETH / #BTC broke down), October was slightly green, but Nov/Dec were still red. https://t.co/XA2NvOmCGn pic.twitter.com/OI9Z1vBoRq
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 8, 2024
Similarly, in Q4 2019, Ethereum experienced another decline against Bitcoin. After a brief October recovery marked by a green candle, November and December witnessed continued declines, represented by red months. This pattern aligns with Ethereum’s regression curve movements, with subsequent upward momentum in early 2020.
Possible Ethereum Dip in Q4 2024
The analysis suggests Ethereum might be on the brink of another historical ETH/BTC breakdown. Currently aligning with the logarithmic regression band, Ethereum could face a slump if ETH/USD decreases further. As seen in 2016 and 2019, a downturn may precede eventual recovery in the ensuing months.
Ethereum’s 2024 monthly trends already highlight volatility, commencing with five consecutive green months until May. However, red months have dominated since June, with October 2024 also presenting similarly.This repetition mirrors earlier breakdown intervals.
Whale Activity and Bearish Indicators
Adding to bearish sentiments, substantial Ethereum transfers to exchanges have been reported. An ICO-participating whale recently shifted 5,000 ETH (valued at $12.22 million) to Kraken, signaling larger sell-offs. Over the previous fortnight, the whale has offloaded 45,000 ETH at an average $2,516 per ETH, reaching a total sale of 60,000 ETH for $149.68 million.
Furthermore, the Ethereum Foundation has moved 2,500 ETH ($6.06 million) to Bitstamp, further fueling speculation. Such activity raises questions about potential future sales, particularly as Ethereum continues to face downward pressure in the last quarter of 2024.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. The opinions expressed here represent the author’s views and do not necessarily reflect The Crypto Basic’s stance. We encourage readers to conduct thorough research prior to making investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses.
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