Cryptocurrency expert Benjamin Cowen has recently highlighted that the US unemployment rate might significantly impact Bitcoin’s (BTC) trajectory, particularly in Q4. In a detailed video update, Cowen discusses the historical correlation between employment data and risk assets. If the unemployment rate continues to rise by the end of the year, Bitcoin may face hurdles in breaking out of its bear market.
Unemployment Rate and Its Potential Impact on Bitcoin
In his recent update, Cowen tells his 814,000 YouTube followers that a rising unemployment rate could keep Bitcoin trapped in a lower-high price pattern. According to Cowen, “If it follows the [cycle] from 2000, the unemployment rate by the end of the year could be at 4.8% or 4.9%. If the unemployment rate hits 4.9%, Bitcoin might still struggle to break out of its lower-high price structure.
Drawing parallels from the 1990s, Cowen mentions, “Even during a mild recession with the S&P 500 dropping around 20%, the unemployment rate could still reach 4.6%.” This implies that Bitcoin’s price behavior could follow a similar trajectory.
Bitcoin’s Historical Trends and Future Predictions
Cowen also observes that Bitcoin’s current pattern seems reminiscent of its 2019 behavior when it recorded lower-high and lower-low prices on a monthly basis before eventually breaking out. He notes, “This trend is possibly tied to the labor market’s health. Ignoring it might lead to missed opportunities and misjudged risks.”
He cautions, “Many believed Bitcoin would reach $100,000 just six months ago. However, given the difficult labor market, Bitcoin is experiencing a gradual decline characterized by lower-highs and lower-lows, akin to the slow downturn we witnessed in 2019.”
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $63,331, reflecting a 3.1% decrease in the past 24 hours.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
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