Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes: My Predictions Are ‘Pretty Shit’

In a recent analysis, Bitcoin billionaire and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes revealed that his market prediction accuracy is somewhat lacking, rating it as ‘pretty shit.’ Hayes candidly shared a 25% success rate in his recent predictions, getting only 2 out of 8 calls correct over the past year. However, he emphasized that his long-term profitability comes from leveraging macroeconomic trends effectively.

“So the Batting Average = .250. That’s pretty shit to the common man,” Hayes admitted in his essay, using a baseball analogy to describe his prediction accuracy. Covering forecasts from November 2023 to September 2024, the self-reported scorecard spans Treasury bill issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price trends, and central bank policies.

Arthur Hayes Reflects on Prediction Failures

While acknowledging difficulties with short-term forecasts, Hayes reaffirmed his commitment to his “volatility supercycle” thesis, which drives his long-term market outlook. Despite recent setbacks, including an incorrect call about the Bank Term Funding Program’s expiry impact in March 2024, Hayes remains confident about the future of Bitcoin and macroeconomic trends.

Investing in a Volatility Supercycle

Recently, Maelstrom Fund, led by Hayes, reduced its holdings in the DeFi altcoin Pendle (PENDLE), selling 1.59 million tokens for $5.62 million at an average price of $3.52. This sale resulted in a reported loss of $1.29 million, according to Spotonchain.

Nevertheless, Hayes firmly believes in his fundamental thesis: Governments’ monetary policies will continue to drive the value of Bitcoin upwards. “The fiat required to keep volatility at suppressed levels will find its way into crypto,” he stated, reinforcing his view of Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial systems. He forecasts that major central banks, like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and People’s Bank of China, will continue easing monetary conditions.

Hayes encourages crypto investors to “sit back, relax, and watch the fiat value of your portfolio pump.” Despite some missed short-term predictions, he argues that staying focused on the broader monetary expansion is crucial for long-term success in the crypto market.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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