Driven by Unforeseen Routes
Many Americans have adopted remote work, but contrary to what many expected, this shift to remote work led to an increase in driving and congestion. The anticipated reduction in vehicle usage didn’t take place. Instead, there has been a significant rise in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), as evidenced by a recent analysis.
The Findings: Increased Driving Despite Remote Work
Streetlight Data, a mobility analytics company, revealed that VMTs per capita surged by 12 percent between May 2019 and May 2024. This indicates that remote work hasn’t reduced driving; it has increased reliance on fossil fuels. Consequently, 88 out of the 100 most populated metro areas experienced an overall rise in vehicle miles during this period.
The rise in vehicle miles was observed in both expected and unexpected metro areas. For instance, cities like El Paso saw a 42 percent increase, Boise City 58 percent, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission in Texas a whopping 68 percent. Even transit-friendly cities like Chicago and Philadelphia saw increases of 5 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
Unexpected Trends and Congestion Persistence
Surprisingly, only San Francisco and Albuquerque saw minimal congestion reduction during spring 2024 compared to spring 2019. These reductions were less than half a percentage point. VMTs soared again between January and May, marking the most significant year-over-year increase since the early pandemic rebound in 2021.
According to the Streetlight report, “VMT accelerated significantly in the last year compared to 2022-2023, signaling a warning for localities.” Nationwide, VMTs per capita increased by 20 percent since January 2023.
The increase in driving even affected downtown areas of major cities. For example, New York City experienced a nearly 15 percent surge in per-capita VMT and a 2.2 percent increase in congestion over the past five years (see sidebar). This surge was most pronounced in the city’s downtown core, leading to significant congestion.
The frustration among advocates has grown due to policies like Governor Kathy Hochul’s abrupt cancellation of a congestion pricing plan previously set to start on June 30. According to Sara Lind, co-executive director of Open Plans, “These new findings make it crystal clear that our elected officials have a lot of work to do when it comes to reducing driving. The increase in gridlock we all disdain is directly tied to this dramatic rise in driving.”
Why These Insights Are Crucial
The Covid-19 pandemic, starting in 2020, claimed more than 1.2 million lives. Amid such tragedy, remote work seemed a silver lining, potentially reducing vehicle usage, greenhouse gas emissions, and road congestion. However, after an initial dip, traffic deaths increased and vehicle usage surged back.
The U.S. committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2030 (White House). However, the transportation sector, now the largest emitter, isn’t aligning with these goals. Remote work and evolving labor dynamics, counterintuitively, amplified this issue, surprising many researchers.
Emily Adler, content director at Streetlight, noted, “What was stark to me was to see that acceleration in VMT.” This data is a wake-up call, signaling persistent congestion and stressing the need for significant VMT reduction to impact congestion positively.
Accurate data serves as a crucial tool for policymakers, advocates, and transportation planners. Without it, future strategies and goals remain ambiguous. As Adler emphasized, the purpose of this data is to provide benchmarks, enabling us to understand our current situation, past trends, and how to achieve future goals effectively.
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