As we step into October, the crypto market is abuzz with forecasts of a potential upswing. Historically, October has seen recoveries following challenging Septembers. This phenomenon, often referred to as “Uptober,” signifies a bullish trend, whereas skeptics have dubbed it “Rektober” when the market fails to meet expectations. Investors are now speculating: Will it be an “Uptober” or a “Rektober” for 2024?
With the unpredictable nature of the markets this year, investors are eagerly waiting to see what October holds. This article explores investors’ hopes, forecasts, and the essential factors that could influence the market.
Main Insights for Uptober or Rektober
- 75% of crypto investors are confident in substantial market gains, promoting the “Uptober” narrative.
- Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are predicted to rise in tandem with Bitcoin.
- More than half of investors expect Bitcoin to hit $80,000 during Uptober.
- Almost half of investors are optimistic about Q4, predicting a bullish market.
- The US Presidential Election is seen as a pivotal factor by 51% of investors, likely affecting Q4.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) is expected to lead the crypto narrative in Q4, according to 52.5% of investors.
September Sentiment: Rektember vs. Resilience
Despite its reputation as a difficult month for crypto, often dubbed “Rektember,” investor morale has remained largely positive. A survey revealed that 55.2% of investors maintain an optimistic market outlook, while 27.6% anticipate a rally in Uptober.
Conversely, 44.8% of participants expressed concerns, mainly due to a weakening global economy, affecting 52.7% of investor outlooks.
On the whole, a majority chose to hold steady, preparing for October, with 63% anticipating Uptober gains, and 20.2% purchasing more crypto assets in hope of a strong market rebound.
October Projections: Ready for Uptober?
Investor sentiment is decisively bullish as October nears, with 75.3% anticipating market gains. Predictions reveal 48.3% expect a 5%-10% increase, while 20.4% foresee gains between 10%-20%.
Global Market Performance in Uptober
Bitcoin’s historical performance fuels the Uptober outlook, supported by 38.7% of investors. The following table highlights Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance in October over recent years:
| Year | Oct Bitcoin Price, YTD |
| 2014 | 12.95% |
| 2015 | -33.49% |
| 2016 | 14.71% |
| 2017 | 47.81% |
| 2018 | -3.83% |
| 2019 | 10.17% |
| 2020 | 27.7% |
| 2021 | 39.93% |
| 2022 | 5.56% |
| 2023 | 28.52% |
Bitcoin’s performance YTD
Investor confidence is bolstered by a positive market sentiment, with 51.2% highlighting optimism. Institutional adoption (16.3%) and key catalyst events (15.6%) further support this sentiment.
Upcoming crypto-friendly regulations are seen as key by 22.8% of investors, while 20.6% highlight technical breakout patterns as reasons for potential growth.
Among altcoins, Ethereum is expected to lead the pack, favored by 47.5% of investors. Solana and BNB also remain strong contenders, favored by 17.7% and 19.6% of investors, respectively.
Bitcoin’s $80,000 Journey
One pressing question is whether Bitcoin will reach $80,000 during Uptober. 51% of investors believe it will hit this milestone, while 49% expect this target closer to the end of 2024 or early 2025.
Many of the optimistic investors attribute this to a potential Trump victory in the US Presidential Election, seen as likely to favor cryptocurrency due to less stringent financial regulations.
Among the 49% who doubt a rapid rise to $80,000 in Uptober, 19.3% expect it by year-end, while 73.6% foresee it happening within the next year.
Q4 2024 Outlook: Predominantly Bullish
Nearly half of all investors predict an upward trend for Q4, with 45.9% expecting growth. Others, around 37.4%, predict a sideways market, and only 16.7% anticipate a bearish trend, indicating an overall positive market outlook.
| Time | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| 2023 | +71.77% | +7.19% | -11.54% | +56.90% |
| 2022 | -1.46% | -56.2% | -2.57% | -14.75% |
| 2021 | +103.17% | -40.36% | +25.01% | +5.45% |
| 2020 | -10.83% | +42.33% | +17.97% | +168.02% |
| 2019 | +8.74% | +159.36% | -22.86% | -13.54% |
| 2018 | -49.7% | -7.71% | +3.61% | -42.16% |
| 2017 | +11.89% | +123.86% | +80.41% | +215.07% |
| 2016 | -3.06% | +62.06% | -9.41% | +58.17% |
| 2015 | -24.14% | +7.57% | -10.05% | +81.24% |
| 2014 | -37.42% | +40.43% | -39.74% | -16.70% |
Historical Bitcoin quarterly returns in Q4
A primary factor driving Q4 expectations is the US Presidential Election, with 50.4% of investors predicting it will substantially impact the crypto market.
Furthermore, large-scale institutional investments are seen as key drivers by 24.3%, while upcoming crypto-friendly regulations are crucial for market growth, cited by 33.4%.
AI’s Dominance in Q4 Crypto Narratives
Moving into Q4, AI is set to lead crypto discussions. A significant 55.7% of investors believe that artificial intelligence will shape the market’s direction.
While trends like NFTs and the metaverse remain relevant (16.1%), gaming and metaverse projects (10.6%) are expected to have a lesser impact compared to AI.
As the integration of blockchain and AI progresses, investors are on the lookout for lucrative opportunities.
Conclusion: Uptober or Rektober?
As October approaches, the
Discover more from Make Money Online and Work From Anywhere
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
